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No. 2002-9   (Download at EconPapers) (published)
Virmantas Kvedaras and Olivier Basdevant
Testing the efficiency of emerging markets: the case of the Baltic States
There is little evidence on the efficiency of the early stage of the capital market in transition countries, although market structure developments and the learning process could define the framework for efficient markets. The article tries to find out whether financial markets are efficient in the three Baltic States and if not, whether there are any signs of evolving to the efficient capital market. To answer these questions the analysis combines the methodology for testing the efficiency of capital market using the variance ratio robust to heteroscedasticity with the state-space representation, which enables us to use an efficient filtering technique - the Kalman filter - to get time varying autocorrelations. The official Estonian, Latvian, and Lithuanian stock exchange market indices TALSE, DJRSE, and LITIN comprising the most liquid parts of the stock market in a respective country are analysed. The main conclusion to be drawn from the analysis is that financial markets in the Baltic States are, with some turbulence, approaching weak form of efficiency.
No. 2002-4   (Download at EconPapers) (published)
Laura Ehrlich, Ulo Kaasik and Anu Randveer
The impact of Scandinavian economies on Estonia via foreign trade and direct investments
The paper focuses on the benefits, challenges and risks of the Estonian economy stemming from close relations with its main foreign partners Finland and Sweden, through foreign direct investments and foreign trade. The paper gives a short overview of Finnish and Swedish economies to provide a background for the analysis of the characteristics of FDI and trade flows between Estonia and these countries. As Estonia is a very small and open economy main benefits and challenges are related to it. The authors find that FDI from Finland and Sweden increase the credibility of Estonian economy, but as foreign investment flows are subject to push factors they have the potential of destabilising capital flows, because these two countries make over 70% of FDI into Estonia. The authors also find that the dynamics of Estonian exports to Finland and Sweden (which make more than half of total exports) is generally determined by the demand factors of those countries.
No. 2002-2   (Download at EconPapers) (published)
Lucio Vinhas de Souza
Integrated monetary and exchange rate frameworks: are there empirical differences?
The aim of the paper is to empirically estimate whether the different monetary and exchange rate frameworks observed in the accession countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the Baltic States do yield different outcomes in terms of level and variance of a set of nominal and real variables. The author follows and extends the methodology developed by Kuttner and Posen (2001), who perform a combined analysis of the individual effects of exchange rate regimes, central bank independence and announced targets in nominal variables for a large set of developed and developing countries. They also estimate that a set-up combining a free float, an independent currency board and inflation targeting yields an outcome that mimics the price stabilisation advantages of a hard peg without its drawbacks in terms of extreme volatility. This sample of countries, not covered by the Kuttner and Posen study, supports their conclusions for both nominal and real variables, testing for both the individual and combined effects of the frameworks and indicating that a flexible exchange rate regime, coupled with CBI and DIT, would be Pareto-improving when compared to harder regimes.
No. 2002-11   (Download at EconPapers) (published)
Andreas Freytag
Estonian labour market and EMU membership - challenges and policy options
With the planned membership in EMU, Estonia will give up every option to pursue a discretionary monetary policy. This demands a very flexible labour market, returning to equilibrium by itself after a negative external shock. In general, the Estonian labour market regime allows for flexibility and labour force mobility. Nevertheless, there is a serious problem on the Estonian labour market, namely, a mismatch with respect to qualification. The paper discusses three potential remedies for this problem: 1) further development of the relatively underdeveloped social dialogue in Estonia, 2) an increase of the low extent of public labour market spending, and 3) a significant improvement of the education and training system. It turns out that concentration on education policy promises the highest yields. We conclude by referring to earmarked education vouchers. Such a system allows to fully employ the capacities of competition to generate the structure of qualifications necessary to increase the level of employment in Estonia.
No. 2002-1   (Download at EconPapers) (published)
Andreas Freytag
Accession to EMU and exchange rate policies in Central Europe - decision under institutional constraints
Currently, five Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries are negotiating about the membership in the European Union: Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Poland and Slovak Republic. There is a broad consensus that they will eventually become members of the European Monetary Union. This requires careful analysis of the appropriate exchange rate regime prior to the accession. The exchange rate arrangement of the EU applicants plays an important - but not exclusive - role in their policy-mix. The history of transition economies as well as of other emerging markets illustrates that exchange rate policies as such are not a distinctive factor for the success and failure of monetary policy with respect to price stability. In this paper it is argued that this outcome has not emerged by chance. There is no naturally superior exchange rate regime that can be applied to all advanced countries in transition aiming at stability. By way of contrast, an exchange rate arrangement is part of the monetary regime, which itself is a component of the economic order. The latter consists of both politically chosen and spontaneously evolved institutions. This leads to the hypothesis that the choice of an exchange rate arrangement in CEE is constrained by this institutional setting. The theoretical considerations as well as empirical evidence indeed suggest that for guaranteeing stability, beside the legal monetary commitment (part of which being the exchange rate regime) the institutional framework in the country is decisive. If the latter matches the commitment, the credibility of a monetary regime is relatively high, obviously encouraging monetary stability. Therefore, the institutional setting in each country should be analysed extensively before an exchange rate arrangement is chosen.
No. 2002-07   (Download at EconPapers)
Marit Hinnosaar
Unemployment and Labour Mobility in Estonia: Analysis Using Duration Models
The current paper analyses unemployment and labour movements between labour market statuses in the period of January 1997 to July 2000 using data from the Estonian Labour Force Surveys. The paper is motivated by the hypothesis that in the beginning of transition in Estonia high labour mobility and low unemployment rate seemed to be related. The analysis reveals that in the end of the 1990s labour mobility has decreased substantially in Estonia compared to 1994. The results from the paper indicate that unemployment rate and labour mobility measure have inverse relationship, both in aggregate and disaggregate level. The most mobile groups in Estonian labour market are Estonians, people living in the area of capital Tallinn and people with higher education. Young people also tend to move a lot from job to job. High mobility in case of young workers is accompanied by high number of unemployment incidents, which is captured by the aggregate unemployment rate time series.
No. 2002-06   (Download at EconPapers) (published)
Olivier Basdevant and Ulo Kaasik
The Core of a Macro-economic Model for Estonia
This article presents a macro-econometric model for Estonia currently developed at the Bank of Estonia. It is based on a basic macro-economic framework that integrates both supply and demand side components. With this model we analyse the policy that should be implemented to maintain sustainable growth. The main emphasis is on the need to continue tough fiscal policy in order to maintain public deficit, as well as to avoid inflationary pressures and keep Estonia attractive to foreign investors.
No. 2002-05   (Download at EconPapers) (published)
Urmas Sepp and Martti Randveer
Aspects of the Sustainability of Estonian Currency Board Arrangement
The main aim of the paper is to examine different aspects of the sustainability of Estonian CBA. For this purpose the paper gives an overview of CBA in general, describes the rationale for the choice of the CBA in Estonia and uses model simulations to assess its sustainability. It also analyses whether the preconditions for the successful performance of the CBA are in place in Estonia and discusses the compatibility of Estonian CBA to the EMU and ERM 2. The analysis in the paper shows that CBA is a suitable exchange rate regime for Estonia. It is argued that the preconditions for a well-functioning CBA - resilient financial sector, flexible wage and employment system and prudent fiscal policy - are in place. The sustainability of the CBA is also supported by model simulations, which show that shocks hitting Estonian economy do not cause convergence of the Estonian economy from the long-run path. Based on the above-mentioned results, the paper concludes that the currency board arrangement is the best exchange rate regime for Estonia before the full participation in the third stage of the EMU.