|
|
Working Paper Series in Economics
| All 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 |
-
No. 2003-9
(Download at EconPapers)
(published)
- Reimo Juks
- The relationship between REER and trade flows in the context of the equilibrium exchange rate
The paper focuses on the time-series analysis of the traditional trade equations. The results from the cointegration, ARDL and Granger causality analyses of trade elasticities cast some doubt on the usefulness of the internal-external balance approach to the equilibrium exchange rate. The long-run impact of the REER on trade flows turned out to be statistically insignificant, being independent of method and specification of the model employed. The latter implies a secondary role for the REER in achieving a sustainable position of external balance.
-
No. 2003-8
(Download at EconPapers)
(published)
- Marit Hinnosaar and Tairi Room
- The impact of minimum wage on the labour market in Estonia: an empirical analysis
In Estonia, as in several other EU acceding countries, minimum wage has been on an upward trend and in the coming years it will expectedly be raised faster than the average wage. Despite its rapid increase, the impact of the minimum wage on Estonian labour market has not been analysed. The current paper aims to fill this gap. We estimate the effect of the minimum wage on employment and wages in Estonia during the period of 1995-2000, using micro-data from Estonian Labour Force Surveys. The estimation results indicate that a minimum wage increase leads to employment reduction for the group of workers who are directly affected by this change, ie those whose wages have to be raised as a result. Additional negative effect of raising the minimum wage is that the rate of compliance with this regulation diminishes as a result, thereby enlarging the share of workers whose salaries remain below the legally set minimum.
-
No. 2003-4
(Download at EconPapers)
(published)
- Balązs Čgert
- Nominal and real convergence in Estonia: the Balassa-Samuelson (Dis)connection
The objective of the paper is to analyse the nominal and real convergence process in Estonia drawing on the Balassa-Samuelson (B-S) framework. A 15-sectoral breakdown for GDP and a 5-digit level CPI data disaggregation with over 260 items is used for the period 1993:Q1 to 2002:Q1 to show that the productivity differential is related to the GDP-deflator relative price of non-tradable goods in the long run. Furthermore, the role of regulated prices in the CPI basket is also investigated - we show that excluding regulated prices makes it possible to detect a robust relationship between productivity and the relative price of market services in CPI. The B-S effect could have possibly contributed to CPI by a yearly average of 2-3% over the sample period, and more specifically 1-4% at the beginning of the period and 0.5-1% in 2000 and 2001. The potential long-run impact of the B-S effect in Estonia is estimated to amount to 1-2%. Analysis of the influence of the B-S effect on the inflation differential and the real appreciation of the exchange rate against Finland, Sweden, Germany and the UK, shows that, whereas the inflation differential attributable to the B-S effect seems to have been higher in the early 1990s, it better explains the real appreciation occurring in recent years.
- Keywords: convergence, transition, Balassa-Samuelson effect, productivity, relative prices, tradable goods, regulated prices, real exchange rate
-
No. 2003-11
(Download at EconPapers)
(published)
- Rasmus Kattai, Alvar Kangur and Martti Randveer
- Automatic fiscal stabilisers in Estonia: the impact of economic fluctatios on general government budget balance
The paper discusses the functioning of automatic fiscal stabilisers in Estonia. The aim of the research is to evaluate government budget sensitivity to economic fluctuations and thereby assess the importance of automatic fiscal stabilisers in Estonia. Specifically we are interested in whether the functioning of automatic fiscal stabilisers might under certain circumstances create difficulties for the fulfilment of the Maastricht deficit criterion according to which public deficit is not allowed to exceed the limit of 3% of GDP.
The results of our research show that the role of automatic fiscal stabilisers is modest in Estonia. Budgetary sensitivity was approximately 0.35 in the period 1996-2001 - an increase in output gap by 1 percentage point causes a change in the budget balance by 0.35% of GDP. According to that maximum value, the budget's reaction was only 1.3% of GDP (while the output gap was -3.9%). A positive implication of this is that Estonia has good chances of holding the budget balance within the requested ceilings. If the output gap reaches -5%, structural deficit may still be 1% of GDP without the actual balance exceeding the 3% deficit boundary.
- JEL-Codes: E32; H2; H5; H6; H87
- Keywords: automatic fiscal stabilisers, structural budget balance, economic cycle, fiscal policy
-
No. 2003-10
(Download at EconPapers)
(published)
- Aurelijus Dabuinskas
- Exchange rate pass-through to Estonian prices
The objective of the paper is to further our understanding of the relationship between changes in the nominal exchange rate and prices in a small open economy. The paper uses data from 1995 Q1-2003 Q1 for Estonia to investigate the exchange rate pass-through to import, producer and consumer prices, both total and disaggregated. Although the currency board arrangement eliminates exchange rate fluctuations from a very significant share of the Estonian effective currency basket, the remaining variation in the nominal exchange rate can be regarded as exogenous (determined by the anchor currency), a useful feature when estimating the pass-through. In the case of import unit values, the pass-through tends to be statistically significant for textiles and commodity-type goods, such as petroleum, non-metal mineral products and basic metals. In the case of producer prices, the long-run pass-through is evident in textiles and chemical products. Point estimates of the long-run pass-through to aggregate import and producer prices fall between 40 and 50%, though the precision of these estimates is low. In contrast, no significant exchange rate pass-through is estimated to consumer prices, measured by total CPI or its tradable component.
-
No. 2003-1
(Download at EconPapers)
(published)
- Marit Hinnosaar
- Reservation wages in Estonia
This paper analyses the factors determining reservation wages in Estonia, and estimates the influence of the reservation wage on unemployment duration. According to estimations there is no statistically significant effect of unemployment benefit and social assistance on the reservation wage in Estonia. While evidence was found, that the higher the reservation wage, the lower the probability of finding a job, if all other things are equal. It was also found that the eligibility of unemployment benefit or social assistance increases the duration of the unemployment period, which indicates the lower offer arrival rate in the case of unemployed receiving assistance, which might be caused by a lower search intensity.
|
|
|