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Working Paper Series in Economics
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No. wp2026-06
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- Natalia Levenko
- Drivers of compliance intentions and actual tax behaviour:
consistent and inconsistent taxpayers
This paper analyses six waves of survey data on the tax compliance of Estonian residents, collected between 2018 and 2023. It studies the behavioural mechanisms underlying compliance by applying the theory of planned behaviour, where intentions mediate the effects of attitudes, norms, and perceived control on behaviour. The analysis uses structural equation modelling, allowing latent constructs and observed intentions to be jointly estimated. The results confirm the relevance of this model in explaining tax compliance, with social norms and tax morale being more prominent in shaping compliance intentions than deterrence. Using a novel taxonomy of consistent and inconsistent taxpayers, defined by the alignment of intentions and behaviour, the paper documents pronounced heterogeneity across these groups: for consistent taxpayers, compliance intentions are shaped by both intrinsic and external factors with intrinsic motivation dominating, while for inconsistent taxpayers external factors are of key importance. These findings highlight the relevance of psychological mechanisms in tax behaviour and have implications for targeted policy design beyond standard rational choice models
- JEL-Codes: H26, H30, H83, D91
- Keywords: tax evasion, theory of planned behaviour, mediation analysis, tax morale, attitudes, beliefs, perceived behavioural control, subjective norms, monetary and non-monetary motives, behavioural choice
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No. wp2026-05
- Karsten Staehr, Olegs Tkacevs and Ann Merit Toiger
- Fiscal shocks and public debt dynamics in the European Union.
New evidence using forecast-error identification
This paper studies the effects of fiscal shocks on the dynamics of public debt and other fiscal
and macroeconomic variables. The data are annual and cover all the members of the European
Union from 2001 to 2024. The fiscal shocks are identified using orthogonalised forecast errors
computed from European Commission forecasts, and the impulse responses are generated using
local projections. Primary balance shocks lower government debt measured in per cent of GDP,
but the effect is gradual and is initially modest. There are large differences in how revenue
and expenditure measures affect the stock of public debt. Revenue shocks have gradual and
statistically insignificant effects, while primary expenditure shocks have fast, relatively large and
statistically significant effects. The effects on the public debt stock differ because the resulting
fiscal reactions are different for revenue or spending shocks
- JEL-Codes: H63, H68, E62
- Keywords: Government debt, debt dynamics, fiscal policy, austerity, euro area
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No. wp2026-04
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- Enrico Vanino, Mustapha Douch and Ismail Çakmak
- Political, economic and research disintegration:
the impact of geopolitical uncertainty on cross-border R&D
collaborations and innovation
Uncertainty regarding the policy environment could be particularly detrimental
to innovation, as it requires high-risk investment and long-term commitments with
scientists and research partners. This paper focuses on the effects of geopolitical
uncertainty on cross-border R&D collaborations and patenting activity, exploiting the
UK’s exit from the EU as a quasi-natural experiment in a difference-in-differences
(DiD) analysis. Our results reveal a significant disruption to the cross-border research
collaborations of UK organisations after the Brexit referendum, as EU-based inventors
were replaced by UK-based ones. Overall, this disruption has negatively affected the
innovation output of UK-based organisations, reducing both the number of inventions
patented overseas and their quality.
- JEL-Codes: F15; O30; O34; O36; D80
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No. wp2026-03
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- Nicolas Reigl
- Monetary policy, mortgage structure, and household
sentiment: evidence from the Euro Area
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No. wp2026-02
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- Ana Kujundzic
- Educational assortative mating and household income inequality: evidence from
Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, and South Africa
- JEL-Codes: D31, I24, J12
- Keywords: assortative mating, sorting, education, marriage, household income inequality
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No. wp2026-01
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- Erwan Gautier, Cristrina Conflitti, Daniel Enderle, Ludmilla Fadejeva, Alex Grimaud, Eduardo Gutierrez, Valentin Jouvaceau, Jan-Oliver Menz, Alari Paulus, Pavlos Petroulas, Pau Roldan-Blanco and Elisabeth Wieland
- Consumer price stickiness in the Euro Area during an inflation surge
We use CPI micro data for nine euro area countries to document new evidence on consumer price
stickiness in the euro area during the 2021-2024 inflation cycle. In 2022, the monthly frequency
of price changes reached 12%, compared with an average of 8% over 2010–2019, roughly a fourpercentage-
point increase; it then fell quickly in 2023 and more slowly in 2024, ending close to its
pre-pandemic level. The decline in the frequency of price changes was faster for food and nonenergy
industrial goods (NEIG) than for services, where frequencies remained elevated in 2024.
The overall frequency rose mainly because there were more price increases, while the magnitude
of the average size of the price increases or decreases changed only marginally during the surge.
Products with a larger imported-energy cost share responded more strongly, and hazard-rate
evidence shows that the probability of price adjustments increases with the gap between actual
and optimal prices, consistent with state-dependent pricing and a steepening of the Phillips curve.
To illustrate the implications of this state dependence, a macro model suggests that peak inflation
would have been almost 1 percentage point lower if the frequency had not responded to the
inflation surge.
- JEL-Codes: E31, E52, F33, L11
- Keywords: Price rigidity, euro area, inflation surge, micro price data
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No. wo2026-05
(Download at EconPapers)
- Karsten Staehr, Olegs Tkacevs and Ann Merit Toiger
- Fiscal shocks and public debt dynamics in the European Union.
New evidence using forecast-error identification
This paper studies the effects of fiscal shocks on the dynamics of public debt and other fiscal
and macroeconomic variables. The data are annual and cover all the members of the European
Union from 2001 to 2024. The fiscal shocks are identified using orthogonalised forecast errors
computed from European Commission forecasts, and the impulse responses are generated using
local projections. Primary balance shocks lower government debt measured in per cent of GDP,
but the effect is gradual and is initially modest. There are large differences in how revenue
and expenditure measures affect the stock of public debt. Revenue shocks have gradual and
statistically insignificant effects, while primary expenditure shocks have fast, relatively large and
statistically significant effects. The effects on the public debt stock differ because the resulting
fiscal reactions are different for revenue or spending shocks.
- JEL-Codes: H63, H68, E62
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